As most coaches highlight during interviews and press conferences, rugby is a sport that runs in four-year cycles, with each one culminating in the Rugby World Cup and the chance to secure the greatest prize in the men’s side of the game.
Every team sets out with aspirations to either reach the finals stage, improve on previous performances or to challenge for the Webb-Ellis Cup, but only two make it all the way to the last match of the tournament. This year, the honour of lifting the trophy and of calling themselves world champions will go to either New Zealand or South Africa, and it promises to be a final for the ages.
Neither are strangers to this stage of the tournament and both are fierce rivals, so there will be a lot of spice and global interest in their meeting at the Stade de France on Saturday evening. What will increase that interest is that history will be made at the end of the clash, with both nations currently sat on three World Cup titles and so one will land a fourth and become the outright leader.
This preview will look ahead to the showpiece event, indicating what types of things could be in both teams’ tactics and what fans can expect to see from them once the game gets underway. The tactical analysis will also outline any slight weaknesses that they might have and therefore where each could gain an edge over the other.
Team lineups
New Zealand have made just one change to their starting XV from last week’s commanding win against Argentina, with Brodie Retallick coming in at lock in place of Sam Whitelock, who drops to the bench. Retallick is joined in the second row by Scott Barrett, who will once again start alongside brothers Jordie (inside centre) and Beauden (full-back). Scrum-half Aaron Smith is another notable inclusion, given that it will be his final outing in an All Blacks shirt before he retires from the international stage.
South Africa have also made some alterations from their semi-final, with fly-half Manie Libbok missing out after his indifferent showing in that game against England, whilst fellow scrum-half Cobus Reinach also drops out of the matchday squad. In come Faf de Klerk and Leicester Tigers standoff Handré Pollard as director of rugby Rassie Erasmus and head coach Jacques Nienaber look for more control in the middle of the pitch, with the aim of making a better start than they did a week ago.
In possession
Whilst both Erasmus and Nienaber and New Zealand head coach Ian Foster have spoken in the build-up to the game about the different styles that their teams play with, the reality is that, when they have the ball, there aren’t actually too many differences between the two sides, with both capable of doing the same things with the ball and of creating the same opportunities.
Where New Zealand differ though is their preference for kicking the ball around the pitch and for being more direct, with the trio of Richie Mo’unga, Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie all capable of injecting pace and precision into their play through their ability to find space and to give teammates chances to run onto the ball with momentum, and that is always present regardless of which of them is on the pitch.
In this case, it is Barrett, playing at full-back, who has looked to find the space behind Namibia’s back line, with the Welwitschias on one side of the field and in the process of tracking back across to follow the trajectory of the play. However, Barrett has realised that there is a chance to get his team attacking where the opposing side are currently short of numbers and so kicks towards the nearside of the field, where winger Leicester Fainga’anuku is available.
On this occasion, the new Toulon player was unable to move too far up the field due to utility back Tiaan Swanepoel making a strong tackle and slowing him down, but this is still a common tactic in the All Blacks’ game, as previous analysis has indicated, and so it would be a surprise to not see them kick the ball around the field whenever there is a chance for them to do so.
The Springboks can also kick the ball forwards, and it is certainly an intrinsic part of their game, but they have a little more variation in their play and do have a desire to use their strength in collisions when they can too, driving opponents back and creating gaps that others around the ball can then exploit.
In this case, the aforementioned Libbok has possession and is in just the right position to use both methods of progressing up the field, with players on his outside who would be more than capable of chasing a kick down but there also being options available for him to pass to should he wish to continue building through the phases.
The Stormers player this time opts for the latter, with the ball being sent towards outside centre Jesse Kriel, and the reason that Libbok passed so far behind him here was because he wanted to allow his teammate to build up his usual speed before meeting the Ireland players ahead of him.
Kriel is never a bad player to bring into the game, with him arguably being one of the tournament’s most underrated players so far, and there is no doubt that South Africa will look to involve him as much as possible in the final. However, it is also likely that they will mix their game up as they try to keep New Zealand guessing, and so there could be a combination of kick passes and multiphase situations whenever they have the ball.
Speed at the breakdown
When both sides do turn to strong carries and collisions as a way of gaining territory, getting over the ball quickly and securing possession will be vital, with both demonstrating a propensity for making successful jackals and for using brute strength to protect their teammates on the ground, and it could well come down to who dominates this area of the game better that decides who ends up on top after 80 minutes.
So far, New Zealand’s carrying has not been indicated, but, as mentioned, they do have an ability to engage in battles around the field when needed. Here, Fainga’anuku has taken the ball to ground and Uruguay centre Tomás Inciarte has already looked to win a turnover and to clear his lines.
However, the other All Blacks winger, Will Jordan, has read the play well and has moved in to prevent that happening, with him not focusing on the ball and instead only seeking to drive Inciarte back, thereby offering front line protection and allowing others, like loosehead Ofa Tu’ungafasi here, to then get over the ball and create the ruck.
In this case, the speed and quality of New Zealand’s effort allowed them to recycle the ball efficiently and to launch another attack, and the fact that the next phase saw Crusaders tighthead Fletcher Newell manage to get over the try line does show how important details like this are when teams are moving up the field.
South Africa are just as proficient in these battles though, and what really stands out in their play is their ability to team up and to again use that combined quality to secure possession. In this situation, Scotland lock Richie Gray has taken the ball into contact and is presenting it backwards for his side to get on the end of, but the other Scottish players have not been as quick as South Africa and Leicester back rower Jasper Wiese has moved forward to get his hands on the ball first.
That in itself will have really frustrated both the Scottish players and their coaching staff, but the Springboks weren’t finished there as lock Franco Mostert and captain Siya Kolisi then teamed up behind Wiese to push forward and instigate the counterruck, meaning that Scotland scrum-half Ben White, who will join Toulon once the tournament is over, is unable to compete for the ball and the turnover is successfully executed.
This ability to convert a potentially dangerous situation into an advantageous one is something that New Zealand will have to be very conscious of during the final, and they will already be aware of the threat that the defending champions pose after their defeat at Twickenham Stadium just before the World Cup got underway. However, with this being the World Cup final, it will be vital that they stop these jackals from occurring on too many occasions, otherwise they could find themselves on the back foot very early on.
Inventive nines
Where both teams have shown a lot of quality during the tournament is their ability to make sharp movements and to launch attacks through their scrum-halves, with both having players in those positions who are just as capable of taking the initiative and making sniping forward runs as they are at passing the ball around the field and allowing others to lead charges.
It is where New Zealand could have an advantage on Saturday evening, as they will be starting with Smith behind the forwards and he is a player who has built his career on taking control of situations and of darting through gaps to either score tries or to catch opponents off-guard.
With Smith retiring after the game from international duty, there may be some who will be fearful that this aspect of their play could die out, but the recent introduction of Hurricanes player Cam Roigard has demonstrated that it will continue and that he is the perfect player to take over from the veteran in the future.
The match against Italy was one of those when Foster opted to start Roigard and to allow him to show what he can bring to the table, and it was a decision that paid off significantly as the 22-year-old took full control of the game and led from the front wherever he could. What really stood out was his awareness of not only where gaps were but also where his support was coming from, and it led on this occasion to a try after he broke through following a lineout and then had the ability to attract Italy winger Monty Ioane towards him before freeing up centre Anton Lienert-Brown to finish the move off.
For South Africa, the one who offers the same qualities is Reinach, with the former Northampton Saints half-back showing for every team that he has played for in his career that he has a tendency to read the game earlier than others around him and to make the most of spaces that he is afforded. In this case, he has taken the ball from the base of the scrum and has instantly looked for the line, ignoring the idea of passing to Libbok, who is alongside him.
The fact that Romania are still engaged in the set piece means that their defensive line is thin here, and that is the key reason that Reinach rarely fails in these quick attacks. On this occasion, he works with Libbok to create a 2-v-1 against Jason Tomane, and knows that the centre will have to make a decision one way or another as to who he commits to closing down. On this occasion, it was Libbok that he drifted towards, leaving Reinach free to score the try.
As mentioned, Reinach will not feature in the final as de Klerk has instead been selected, with no replacement nine on the bench, and the former Sale Sharks player is not as tempted to make these runs and so passing from breakdowns is more likely. That could be what undoes them, and it will be interesting to keep an eye on both nines to see what they opt for as the game goes on.
Positional versatility
When fans looked at who had been named in the final matchday squads of the tournament, there was always going to be a significant amount of interest in who would play where on the field, with both New Zealand and South Africa having a tendency to mix things up when it comes to player positions from game to game and demonstrating that they are not averse to experimenting when there is a chance or a need to do so.
When looking at how New Zealand rotate players around the field, the best example is Jordie Barrett, who, whilst featuring as the first choice inside centre throughout the World Cup, has played in every position among the backs except for scrum-half during his All Blacks career so far.
In short, he is the ultimate utility player, and that means that he can bring different things to the team and can allow them to rotate during games and to create confusion among opposing ranks. Here, Jordan has run inside to get on the ball and Barrett has instinctively moved outside him, and this has given Argentina a problem as they followed Jordan and so have left the wing open for Barrett to exploit. As a result, once the ball comes to the Hurricanes player, he has an easy run-in and is able to secure another try in what was ultimately a fairly comfortable semi-final victory for the All Blacks.
Barrett has been one of the stars of the entire World Cup because of everything that he has given his team on the pitch, and there is no doubt that he is up there with Ireland’s Bundee Aki and South Africa’s Damian de Allende for the best 12 in the tournament, but there is a chance that New Zealand could rotate him and others a little as the game goes on to try and force a few spaces to open up, especially if they are behind and feel the need to try new combinations out in order to get back into the game.
South Africa have been even more inventive with their lineups though, and it is not just in-game that they have shown a desire to move players around, with some starting in unfamiliar positions purely because their individual qualities match what both Erasmus and Nienaber want from that role.
One really good example of that is Grant Williams, who normally plays as a scrum-half for Sharks and who was included in the tournament squad as a nine, but who has mainly been deployed as a winger throughout the duration of the tournament. This is because of his frightening pace and direct running, which is indicated here as he moves behind flanker Marco van Staden to exploit the gap that has been created by Romania hooker Ovidiu Cojocaru drifting towards the centre of the field, and it is that sharpness of mind that has allowed him to adapt to the demands of the new role and to play his part in getting the Springboks to another World Cup final.
The defending champions have opted for a more conventional wing pairing of Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse for the final, whilst the rest of the team is largely made up of players in their usual roles. However, the bench is again made up of an unorthodox split of seven forwards and one back (full-back Willie le Roux), and so it is expected that there will once again be some positional shifts as the game goes on and as the coaching staff look to either gain or keep control of proceedings.
Match prediction
Given that this is a clash between two sides who are currently full of confidence and who will have the chance to make history as an extra motivation, there is no doubt that it is a really difficult task to predict who will be the ones to lift the Webb-Ellis Cup into the Paris night sky.
However, when breaking down the overall performances of both sides during the tournament, it does feel like South Africa have been a little inconsistent at times and have had some really disappointing results and displays, with their defeat to Ireland in the pool stage and their poor performance in the semi-final against England good examples. In comparison, New Zealand started off slowly with the defeat to hosts France but have steadily grown into the tournament, and have shown a lot of quality both with and without the ball during the majority of their outings.
For that reason, New Zealand could just edge the Springboks on this occasion, with momentum on their side and there evidently being a desire to give Foster a departing gift, but what is clear is that things are very finely balanced and that, regardless of who does take the win, it is likely to be a final that lives long in the memory of those who witness it.